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Uwe Falkenberg

The differences between various regions, however, are significant: In eastern Germany and North Rhine-Westphalia, rent increases are below average, at 0.4% whereas in Baden-Württemberg and Bavaria saw increases at 1.5%, they are more than double the nationwide average. The City of Munich and a few of its suburbs are in the lead by far. In Munich, tenants pay 71% more than the national average for their apartments. Berlin, at the low end of the scale, is a bargain. In the western districts of the capital, the rent level is currently 7% below the German national average; in the eastern part, it is even 12% less.

For investors the latter indicates a significant development potential in Berlin residential market for mid to long term investments. Here is some catching up to be expected.

For support in the identification of the right investment targets please visit the pre acquisition section of our website at www.berlin-portfolio.com. Especially for international Private Investors and Property Funds we provide a task force service for quick reaction to interesting opportunities.

We provide independent support for the property search including foreclosure or auction properties and their valuation or appraisal. (Also see our free property market Research Service)

Please use this link to the contact facilities provided there to place any requests .

Uwe Falkenberg

The Ifo Business Climate for industry and trade in Germany improved once again in August. For the second time in succession the firms have assessed their current business situation clearly less negatively. However, in comparison to conditions one year ago, the situation of the firms is still considerably worse at the moment. With regard to business developments in the coming half year, the survey participants are less sceptical than in July. The German economy is slowly recovering from its descent.

In manufacturing the business climate is less unfavourable than in the previous month. Some easing of the difficult business situation has occurred, according to the survey responses. Nevertheless, on the whole the firms are dissatisfied with current business, but they no longer expect a worsening in the coming half year. The manufacturing firms have also given less sceptical assessments of their export opportunities. Planned reductions of their staff levels are no longer quite so sharp. Still, their plans remained clearly geared towards cuts in employment.

The business climate in wholesaling has clearly improved. The current business situation has been assessed noticeably less sceptically by the firms than in the previous month. The wholesalers are also less reserved with regard to the six-month outlook. In retailing the business climate index has risen somewhat. Although the retailers are again slightly more dissatisfied with their current business situation, they are less pessimistic regarding business developments in the coming six months.

In construction the business climate has brightened somewhat. The survey participants have assessed their present business slightly more favourably than in the previous month. With regard to future business, their caution remains largely unchanged.

Hans-Werner Sinn
President of the Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich

Detailed material including Graphs and Tables are available on the ifo-website.

The overall picture for the developments in Germany in July 2009 looks promising continues on in August:
Business Climate July 2009- up link
Consumer Climate July 2009 – up link
Unemployment July 2009 – lower than feared link

For support in the identification of the right investment targets please visit our website at www.berlin-portfolio.com. Especially for international Private Investors and Property Funds we provide a task force service for quick reaction to interesting opportunities.

We provide independent support for the property search including foreclosure or auction properties and their valuation or appraisal. (Also see our free property market Research Service)

Please use this link to the contact facilities provided there to place any requests .

Uwe Falkenberg

These building permits include 2.571 new apartments mostly in Pankow, Friedrichhain-Kreuzberg and Treptow-Köpenick, another 20% below the previous year.

In Brandenburg, the state surrounding Berlin, the reduction was “only” 6.5 %.

With Berlin attracting more and more businesses and maturing in its role as capital 20 years after the wall fell and 15 years after the move of the “Bundestag” (German parliament) this development in reduced new production of housing due to the credit crunch will put an upward pressure on existing rents.

It is time to get into this Berlin property market!

For support in the identification of the right investment targets please visit our website at www.berlin-portfolio.com. Especially for international Private Investors and Property Funds we provide a task force service for quick reaction to interesting opportunities.

We provide independent support for the property search including foreclosure or auction properties and their valuation or appraisal. (Also see our free property market Research Service)

Please use this link to the contact facilities provided there to place any requests .

Uwe Falkenberg

Looking at the real estate market segments the residential market is the only one with index values above 100 at 116.2 rising from 111.2 in the previous month. The highest increase was in the office market by 12.6% now at 43.2. Retail grew by 5.4% to now 61.3.

This index is published by King Sturge monthly parallel to those from ifo and Gfk which can be found in this blog as well.

The overall picture for the developments in Germany in July 2009 looks promising:
Business Climate – up link
Consumer Climate – up link
Unemployment – lower than feared link

Experts are still expecting for these market perceptions to take some time to produce real recovery in the economy.

For support in the identification of the right investment targets please visit our website at www.berlin-portfolio.com. Especially for international Private Investors and Property Funds we provide a task force service for quick reaction to interesting opportunities.

We provide independent support for the property search including foreclosure or auction properties and their valuation or appraisal. (Also see our free property market Research Service)

Please use this link to the contact facilities provided there to place any requests .

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These deals show that there is big trust in the stability of the German Economy and the investment environment especially in the Real Estate Market.

For support in the identification of the right investment targets please visit our website at www.berlin-portfolio.com. Especially for international Private Investors and Property Funds we provide a task force service for quick reaction to interesting opportunities.

We provide independent support for the property search including foreclosure or auction properties and their valuation or appraisal. (Also see our free property market Research Service)

Please use this link to the contact facilities provided there to place any requests .

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New construction of residential units is still declining in Germany. It is at the lowest level since the reunification 1990. This is a phenomenon across Europe and is not likely to change at the short term due to the difficulties financing new projects.

Despite decreasing unemployment, economic recovery and moderate interest rates in 2008 there were only 152.000 new units built in Germany. There are regional differences as pointed out by the Munich based ifo Institute and in most regions there are no shortages to be expected, but attractive locations with influx through new jobs this development might cause shortages in the rental market.

An analysis of the regions can help to identify investment targets in the German residential market with potential for rent increases supported by the still robust state of the German economy (see other recent posts in this blog).

For support in the identification of the right investment targets please visit our website at www.berlin-portfolio.com. Especially for international Private Investors and Property Funds we provide a task force service for quick reaction to interesting opportunities.

We provide independent support for the property search including foreclosure or auction properties and their valuation or appraisal. (Also see our free property market Research Service)

Please use this link to the contact facilities provided there to place any requests .

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Investment Barometer

The top priority for private investors in Europe and the USA is the safety of their investments. To achieve this, they are willing to accept moderate returns. Approximately half of the Europeans and almost seven in ten Americans have invested money in savings deposits. At the same time, the proportion of non-savers has decreased on both continents. These are the findings of the Investment Barometer survey carried out by GfK Custom Research on behalf of The Wall Street Journal Europe.

One of the safest investments is into the German Property Market with its stable legal and commercial system. Provided a technical, legal and just as important financial due diligence is performed independently the robust economic environment provides ideal conditions for a safe and prosperous investment.

As a Home Base in the German Property Market for international Private Investors and Property Funds we provide a task force service for quick reaction to interesting opportunities.
Independent support for the property search including foreclosure or auction properties and their valuation or appraisal.

For the purchase phase we provide an Investment Management Service supporting the gathering and submission of any project related information to banks and act as local contact for the investor and the bank. We also assist in finding local finance institutions and possible government subsidies for renovations.

Last but not least we provide support finding the appropriate arrangements for the management of the investment and Asset Management Services.

For more information please visit our website http://www.berlin-portfolio.com/.

Uwe Falkenberg

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The unemployment figure rose by 52,000 (now 3.46 million) according to the monthly statement publich by the “Bundesargentur für Arbeit” on 30.07.2009. Experts expected ca. 100,000.

The delay of the impact of the current recession on the labour market is due to government subsidised “Kurzarbeit” where employees do not get laid off but work shorter hours.

Together with the positive signal from the consumer climate index and the business climate index in July 2009 this is another piece of good news needed so badly right now.

The warnings for the labour market are not gone yet but there is hope for a lower drop and possibly a faster recovery than anticipated so far.

For background information on the development of the German Property Market and opportunities in the rental market please view www.berlin-portfolio.com.

Uwe Falkenberg

Findings of the GfK consumer climate study for July 2009

Nuremberg, July 27, 2009 – In Germany, the upwards trend in the consumer climate continues on through the summer. Both economic and income expectations have increased and there has been a considerable rise in the propensity to buy. The overall indicator is forecasting a value of 3.5 points for August 2009, following a revised value of 3.0 points in July, and has therefore improved more strongly than in the previous month. In a longer term comparison however, the consumer climate is still at a very low level.

After some economic institutes signaled an end to the economic downturn, the economic pessimism on the part of consumers also declined. Following a moderate climb in the previous month, July saw a somewhat stronger improvement in the economic outlook. Inflation is disappearing and people have more money in their pockets. Consumers are rewarding this situation with another rise in income expectations. Furthermore, stable and indeed falling prices led to the propensity to buy recording the biggest gain of all the indicators in July. Alongside favorable prices, the fact that the labor market has not slumped yet plays an important role here. However, the acid test for the consumer climate still lies ahead should there be a significant rise in unemployment figures again in late autumn.

Economic expectations: improvement continues

Economic pessimism declined again in July this year. The current upswing of 8.6 points is the fourth rise in a row. The indicator now stands at -14 points and is only 6 points below the corresponding figure in the previous year. Economic expectations have therefore moved significantly away from their recession low at the start of the year when the indicator was down at almost -33 points.

Consumers obviously assume that the steep downturn in the economy has come to an end, even if they do not consider the recession to be over and they therefore share the opinion of several economic experts who have arrived at a similar assessment. In its recently published monthly report, Deutsche Bundesbank for example believes that the free fall in the German economy is over for the time being. The ifo Business Climate Index also rose the fourth time in a row in July, supporting this theory.

Reports from industry also give cause for cautious optimism. Most recently, the Federation of German Industries (BDI) reported that there were signs of an end to the downturn. Moreover, the major shock in the labor market has so far not materialized. Companies are presently still trying to absorb losses by using short-time working. However, to avoid large scale redundancies in the future, the economic situation would have to stabilize on a sustained basis.

Income expectations: back in positive territory

After a significant rise of 6 points in the previous month, income expectations gained a further 5 points in July. Currently the indicator stands at 1.8 points, in positive territory again for the first time since April 2008.

In addition to the absence of inflation, the pension increases as of 1 July of 2.4% on average should have helped improve sentiment regarding incomes. Since the middle of the year, measures under economic package II, such as lower health insurance premiums and income tax relief, have also eased the situation. In conjunction with stable prices, these measures continue to support income expectations.

Propensity to buy: significant gains

The propensity to buy improved significantly in July this year from its already high level. With a rise of 10.6 points, the upswing even hit double digits. The indicator currently stands at 25.1 points. Compared to the figure for the previous year, the indicator has improved by a good 51 points. Above all, low prices are currently acting an important driver for the propensity to buy. Experience in the past has repeatedly shown that there is a direct link between consumer price expectations and their willingness to spend money.

Technical consumer goods such as entertainment electronics and household appliances are currently popular with consumers. This is confirmed by the corresponding GfK retail surveys, which show growth for technical consumer goods in the first five months of this year. According to the GfK Retail and Technology Non-Food Index there were significant rises in terms of sales between January and May 2009 above all in the areas of entertainment electronics (+3.%), information technology (+5.5%) as well as large and small household appliances (+8.6% and +6%). In the car segment, new registrations recorded a double digit increase, although this was primarily due to economic policy in the form of the scrappage allowance.

The propensity to buy is also likely to have been boosted by the fact the current low interest rates and the financial crisis have made saving unpopular at the moment. This is confirmed by the decline in the propensity to save.

Consumer climate: upwards trend continues

The overall indicator is forecasting a value of 3.5 points for August 2009, following a revised value of 3.0 points in July. Again there has been a stronger rise in the consumer climate. Consequently, private consumption currently remains a significant support for the economy. However, the level of the indicator is still comparatively low.

A sustained stabilization in the consumer climate will depend above all on the further development of the labor market. Should there be a considerable rise in the number of unemployed again in late autumn, this would be likely to become an endurance test for consumer sentiment.

The survey

These findings are extracts from the “GfK consumer climate MAXX survey”, which is based on around 2,000 consumer interviews conducted each month on behalf of the EU Commission. The report contains charts, forecasts and a detailed commentary regarding the indicators. In addition, the report includes information on proposed consumer spending in 20 different areas of the consumer goods and services markets. The GfK consumer climate survey has been conducted since 1980.

The next publication date will be on August 27, 2009.

Further information: Rolf Bürkl, Tel. + 49 911 395-3056, rolf.buerkl@gfk.com

The GfK Group

The GfK Group offers the fundamental knowledge that industry, retailers, services companies and the media need to make market decisions. It offers a comprehensive range of information and consultancy services in the three business sectors of Custom Research, Retail and Technology and Media. The no. 4 market research organization worldwide operates in more than 100 countries and employs over 10,000 staff. In 2008, the GfK Group’s sales amounted to EUR 1.2 billion. For further information, visit our website: www.gfk.com.

Responsible under press legislation

GfK SE, Corporate Communications
Marion Eisenblätter
Nordwestring 101
D-90419 Nuremberg
Tel. +49 911 395-2645
Fax +49 911 395-4041
public.relations@gfk.com

The development of the consumer climate is complemented by an optimistic view of the Business Climate (See article on recent development). For background information on the development of the German Property Market and opportunities in the rental market please view www.berlin-portfolio.com.

Uwe Falkenberg