The Ifo Business Climate for industry and trade in Germany improved once again in August. For the second time in succession the firms have assessed their current business situation clearly less negatively. However, in comparison to conditions one year ago, the situation of the firms is still considerably worse at the moment. With regard to business developments in the coming half year, the survey participants are less sceptical than in July. The German economy is slowly recovering from its descent.

In manufacturing the business climate is less unfavourable than in the previous month. Some easing of the difficult business situation has occurred, according to the survey responses. Nevertheless, on the whole the firms are dissatisfied with current business, but they no longer expect a worsening in the coming half year. The manufacturing firms have also given less sceptical assessments of their export opportunities. Planned reductions of their staff levels are no longer quite so sharp. Still, their plans remained clearly geared towards cuts in employment.

The business climate in wholesaling has clearly improved. The current business situation has been assessed noticeably less sceptically by the firms than in the previous month. The wholesalers are also less reserved with regard to the six-month outlook. In retailing the business climate index has risen somewhat. Although the retailers are again slightly more dissatisfied with their current business situation, they are less pessimistic regarding business developments in the coming six months.

In construction the business climate has brightened somewhat. The survey participants have assessed their present business slightly more favourably than in the previous month. With regard to future business, their caution remains largely unchanged.

Hans-Werner Sinn
President of the Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich

Detailed material including Graphs and Tables are available on the ifo-website.

The overall picture for the developments in Germany in July 2009 looks promising continues on in August:
Business Climate July 2009- up link
Consumer Climate July 2009 – up link
Unemployment July 2009 – lower than feared link

For support in the identification of the right investment targets please visit our website at www.berlin-portfolio.com. Especially for international Private Investors and Property Funds we provide a task force service for quick reaction to interesting opportunities.

We provide independent support for the property search including foreclosure or auction properties and their valuation or appraisal. (Also see our free property market Research Service)

Please use this link to the contact facilities provided there to place any requests .

Uwe Falkenberg

Household and government final consumption expenditureand also capital formation in construction exerted a positive impact compared with the previous quarter. As price-adjusted imports declined far more sharply than exports, the balance of exports and imports also had a positive effect on GDP growth. However, declining inventories had a negative effect on growth.

The economic performance in the second quarter of 2009 was achieved by 40.2 million persons in employment, which was a decrease of 25,000 persons or 0.1% on a year earlier. (Destatis)

These results have duped many experts in their pessimistic forecasts and shows the strength and stability of the German Economy and its outstanding position as an investment destination:

The overall picture for the developments in Germany in July 2009 looks promising:
Business Climate – up link
Consumer Climate – up link
Unemployment – lower than feared link

For support in the identification of the right investment targets please visit our website at www.berlin-portfolio.com. Especially for international Private Investors and Property Funds we provide a task force service for quick reaction to interesting opportunities.

We provide independent support for the property search including foreclosure or auction properties and their valuation or appraisal. (Also see our free property market Research Service)

Please use this link to the contact facilities provided there to place any requests .

Uwe Falkenberg

Nuremberg, June 23, 2009 – After several months of stagnation, the mood of consumers in Germany is once again showing a slight upwards trend, with economic and income expectations on the increase and the propensity to buy also improving slightly. The overall indicator is forecasting a value of 2.9 points for July 2009, following a revised value of 2.6 points in June, and is therefore climbing slightly following a period of stability. However, the consumer climate remains at a low level overall.

Following the recent growing number of signs that the economic downturn may be coming to an end, consumer hopes of economic stabilization are intensifying and accordingly, economic expectations are increasing moderately. The fact that the employment market has remained fairly robust is likely to be one reason for this. Reports that the inflation rate stood at 0% in May are having a positive effect on income expectations and the propensity to buy. Although both indicators have recorded increases, income expectations have seen considerably more improvement. The consumer climate is therefore indicating positive development for July. However, the real test is yet to come, given the likelihood of rising unemployment in the months ahead.

Economic expectations: third increase in a row

Economic expectations have increased in June this year, for the third month in a row. The increase of 5.7 points is even more pronounced than in the two preceding months. The indicator currently stands at -22.6 points, which shows that the recovery is continuing into mid-2009 – albeit still at a very low level.
Economic pessimism is declining somewhat and consumers seem to be expecting that the steep economic decline can gradually be halted. Certainly, this increase in the indicator has been supported by the fact that the expected slump on the unemployment market has so far not materialized, and has been deferred by improved short-time working regulations. However, the indicator is still far too low to warrant talk of an incipient recovery from the perspective of consumers.

The increased optimism of financial analysts shows that German citizens are by no means alone in their diminishing pessimism. The medium-term economic expectations of the Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung (Centre for European Economic Research, ZEW) have improved noticeably in June, and the ifo business climate has also brightened slightly for the third month in a row. Both institutes therefore perceive a stabilization of the German economy as being possible.

Income expectations: highest value since April 2008

Following slight losses in the previous month, income expectations have once again recorded increases in June this year. The indicator has climbed 6 points to stand at -3.3, which is the highest value since April last year. The decrease in inflation and the prospects for pensioners of a significant boost to their received pension payments as of July 1, 2009 are certainly the important factors buoying up income expectations at present. These factors are counteracting creeping redundancy fears and have held at bay the negative effects on the indicator up to now. However, it is to be expected that the forecasted deterioration on the jobs market will increase these unemployment fears, and will place a great amount of strain on income expectations.

Propensity to buy: slight increases

The propensity to buy not only retained its current good level in June this year, but even improved slightly. Following an increase of 2 points this month, the indicator now stands at 14.5 points, which means that there has even been a considerable improvement of 38 points in comparison with the prior year. In particular, the large decrease in inflation is currently stimulating the propensity to consume. Falling prices, for example as a result of the scrappage bonus, act as incentives to buy. Other industries are also implementing this type of price reduction, in order to encourage consumers to make further purchases.

The fact that consumers have not yet completely regained their trust in the financial markets is also having a positive effect on the propensity to buy. Rather than saving, consumers are currently tending to invest their disposable income in consumer goods.

Consumer climate: improvement, but at a low level

The overall indicator is forecasting a value of 2.9 points for July 2009, following a revised value of 2.6 points in June. The consumer climate is therefore improving slightly, although the level of the indicator remains comparatively low.

It is unclear whether this marks the beginning of a sustained recovery in consumer mood. The development of the employment market over the coming weeks will be decisive.

Press Release by:
GfK SE, Corporate Communications
Marion Eisenblätter
Nordwestring 101
90419 Nuremberg, Germany

For more detailed information about the data and the index please view the information on the website of GfK

For background information on the development of the German Property Market and opportunities in the rental market please view www.berlin-portfolio.com.

Relationships! The definitive Advice as to whether a presidential candidate would win the election and eventually become the President of the United States could be verified, among other things, by computing whether there is any propensity for long-term relationships with his (for the time being) nominated vice president.

The Democratic Party has chosen Barack Obama, the junior United States Senator from Illinois as its nominee to compete against the Republican Party’s John McCain from Arizona in the forth-coming United States presidential election of 2008.

The 2008 presidential election is the first time in the U.S. history that two sitting senators will run against each other for the presidency of the United States, and more importantly, it is also the first time an African American has become a presidential nominee for a major party, as well as the first time both candidates of the two major parties — Democratic and Republican, were born outside the continental U. S. A. — Hawaii for Obama and the Panama Canal Zone for McCain.

On November 4, 2008, the Election Day in all fifty states and the District of Columbia, registered voters will cast votes for presidential candidates nominated and listed. They will however only select their state’s members of Electoral College and thereby indirectly vote for their presidential candidates.

On December 15, 2008, members of the U. S. Electoral College will meet in their respective state capital to officially cast their votes for President and Vice President.

On January 6, 2009, Electoral votes will officially be tallied before both chambers of Congress — the Senate and the House of Representatives.

On January 20, 2009, the constitutionally set Inauguration Day, Barack H. Obama, Jr. will become the 44th the President of the United States and Joseph R. Biden, Jr. the 47th Vice President of the United States.

Barack H. Obama, Jr. (born August 4, 1961) announced his candidacy for the presidency of the United States in Springfield, Illinois, on February 10, 2007. On August 27, 2008 he became the nominee of the Democratic Party for the 2008 presidential election. Shortly after midnight on August 23, 2008, Barack Obama’s campaign announced, by way of text message to their supporters, that Senator Joseph Biden of Delaware has become the Vice Presidential candidate.

Joseph R. Biden, Jr. (born November 20, 1942) is the senior United States Senator from Delaware. Biden is both the Vice Presidential candidate for the 2008 November election and a candidate for re-election in the U.S. Senate.

On Wednesday, February 6, 2008, the day after the Super Tuesday — the single biggest U. S. presidential primary day, Best-Relationship-Advice made a bold and definitive advice that the then Senator Obama, now presidential nominee, or better called President-hopeful, will become President-elect at the end of 2008.

Subsequent to the announcement of the partnership with Senator Joe Biden, Best-Relationship-Advice has carefully computed definitively the Relationship between the presidential candidate, Obama, and the vice Presidential candidate, Biden. The result is stunning — there is absolute propensity for a long-term partnership. In the current situation that they are teamed up for the 2008 presidential campaign, this could only lead to one single conclusion, that Barack Obama and Joe Biden will become President and Vice President of the United States in the 2008 Election.

Parallel study has been made on John McCain and Sarah Palin. The result is affirmative, that the presidential and vice presidential candidates of the Republican Party do not reflect any long-term relationship in the coming years.

The result is therefore conclusive, which duly coincides with the same piece of advice given before based upon a totally different methodology by Best-Relationship-Advice.

Extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof!

June 02, 2008 12:48 PM

ABC News’ Sarah Amos Reports: Speaking to a crowd in Milbank, SD former President Bill Clinton admitted that today could be the last time he has such an active role in presidential politics.

“I want to say also that this may be the last day I’m ever involved in a campaign of this kind. I thought I was out of politics, ’til Hillary decided to run. But it has been, one of the greatest honors of my life to go around and campaign for her for president,” said Clinton as he began his speech.

Watch the VIDEO HERE.

It was certainly not a long thought – nor something he seemed to want to dwell on. But for a man who has rarely shown even an inkling of defeat in the past year, even uttering the words says a lot.

See “Definitive Advice on Barack Obama becoming U. S. President“

at http://best-relationship-advice.com/ for full article.

According to information obtained from ministry’s officials, a circular letter on Tuesday was sent to all land registry offices indicating the end of the sale of real estate to foreigners.

The related verdict of the Constitutional Court will come into effect from Wednesday.

The law does not restrict foreigners who already own property in Turkey from selling it to Turkish Citizens.

A total of 63,085 properties have so far been sold to 73,103 foreigners, with German, British, and Greek citizens being the leading purchasers of Turkish property.

Foreign investors’ annual real estate purchases amounted to $3 billion for the past three years, accounting for about 8.5% of the current account deficit.”We believe that the government will take this issue seriously and is likely to pass the necesssary legislation through the parliament. However, the timing remains uncertain and the impact on the financing of the current account deficit should be negative in the near term,” Raymond James Financial said in a research report on Wednesday.

Commentary

There are good and s a f e property investment opportunities in Germany with a stable legal system and without damage by past property hypes like Ireland, UK or Spain.

Uwe Falkenberg

Today is Wednesday, February 6, 2008, the day after the Super Tuesday — the single biggest U. S. presidential primary day.

Notwithstanding the fact that so far neither Senator Hillary Clinton nor Senator Barack Obama could proclaim the victory of the presidential primaries after the Super Tuesday, Best-Relationship-Advice is, however, prepared to make a bold and definitive advice that the now Senator Obama will become President-elect at the end of 2008.

Barack Obama will not only prevail the presidential primaries of the U. S. Democratic Party but also advance to enthrone to the White House becoming the forty-fourth President of the United States. He is making history in the presidency of the United States of America – the first non-white ethnic President of the World’s Super Power. What “An American Dream!”

It has to make clear that Relationship Adviser is not American. He is not a member of or an affiliate to any political party – he does not have a slightest interest in politics. He is not a psychic either.

This piece of definitive advice is not fortune-telling based on horoscope or psychic power, as most fortune-telling always gives equivocal answers which are largely subject to interpretations after the event to its favor. The advice is like when a traveller books a plane flying from New York to Paris on a certain day with a certain flight time, he or she would be foretold the scheduled time of arrival in Paris on that particular day. When he or she actually takes the flight and onboard the plane, he or she would almost certain that the plane will get to Paris at about the ETA — estimated time of arrival — foretold by the Captain. At the end of the journey, the plane would actually get there at about that foretold ETA.

This seems exceedingly natural nowadays but not before May 21, 1927 when The Spirit of St. Louis was flown by Charles Lindbergh which made the first non-stop solo transatlantic flight from New York to Paris.

The above analogy is most apparent and easily understood but not the advice on the outcome of a weighty presidential election campaign.

Most people would certainly be extremely skeptical about the credibility of Best-Relationship-Advice, but time will soon prove the stunning accuracy of Best-Relationship-Advice which relies on meticulous calculation and not on guesswork. After all, extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof.

Best-Relationship-Advice is intended for people who are very serious about making decisions of significant consequence, and today this piece of bold and definitive advice is monumental to demonstrate how credible it is.

Best-Relationship-Advice  is unprecedented, definitive and invaluable for those seeking for right directions in order to make right decisions, not only in love and marriage relationships.

Anyone who has travelled outside his own country is aware of the thrill—and frustration—of dealing with foreign languages.

The thrill comes from the fact that the languages are foreign. When you hear people speaking differently from you, and see newspapers, magazines, posters and other written materials that look different from what you are used to, you know you have actually gone somewhere.

The frustration also comes from the fact that the languages are foreign. If you really need to say something to someone who doesn’t understand you, or need to read something you don’t understand, frustration is inevitable.

The solution, of course, would be a common language that everyone would understand, everywhere in the world.

Implementing such an idea wouldn’t mean anyone losing his or her native tongue. A Frenchman would still speak French, a German would still speak German, a Chinese would still speak Chinese, etc. However, in addition to their native language, they would also speak “X”, the common language that would allow everyone to communicate with everyone else, no matter where on the planet they might be.

English to a large extent already fulfils this role; however, this has come about by historical accident, not by conscious design. If we really want a worldwide common language, some international body (the United Nations?) would first have to designate it, then diligently work so that everyone on the planet could learn it.

My native language is English; however, I also speak French, used to speak Swahili, and have a working knowledge of Dutch, German, and Spanish. The purpose here is not to promote English as the world’s official common language, but rather to establish some ground rules for selecting such a language.

What makes a language easy to learn?

I believe we can all agree that the official common language should be easy to learn. But what does this mean? If your native language is French, Chinese might seem to be unconquerable. Likewise, if your native language is Chinese, you might find French equally daunting. The fact is, whatever your native language is, certain aspects of any other language are likely to make it appear impossibly difficult.

So, is there an objective way of determining how easy a language would be to learn—for everyone?

This would have to be determined by the concerted efforts of linguists, psychologists, socialists, educationalists, etc. I have no such expertise, but I do have experience. So to get things started, I would like to propose a fundamental criterion for answering this question and see how well English stacks up.

Facility Principle

What you don’t have to do is always easier than what you do have to do.

In other words, the less you have to think about in speaking and writing a language, the more rapidly you will learn it and the fewer mistakes you will make.

English scores very well against this criterion, because its basic grammar lacks most of the complexities that characterise many other languages. Here are a few examples.

1.   Gendered nouns

Many languages, and virtually all European languages, have different classes of nouns, often called “gendered nouns”. For example, in French a noun can be either “masculine” or “feminine”. In German a noun can be either “masculine”, “feminine”, or “neuter”. Swahili in fact has four classes of nouns (no, the fourth one isn’t homosexual!). To speak properly, you must learn the gender of each noun individually, which is not always obvious.

English doesn’t have this problem. English can be considered to have only one class of nouns—all neuter.

2.   Gendered articles

Each gendered noun is associated with a gendered article. To speak properly, you must put the correct article with the correct noun. For example, in French “le livre” = the book (masculine), but “la lampe” = the lamp (feminine). It would be quite incorrect to say “la livre” or “le lampe”. In English, the definite article is always “’the”; it never changes.

Likewise, “un livre” = a book (masculine), but “une lampe” = a lamp (feminine). In English, the definite article is always “a”; it also never changes.

3.   Gendered adjectives

Languages with gendered nouns usually have gendered adjectives. To speak properly, you must correctly associate the adjective with the correct noun. For example, “pain frais” = fresh bread, but “viande fraîche” = fresh meat. It would be quite incorrect to say “pain fraîche” or “viande frais”.

In English, adjectives (like nouns) are all neuter and never change, i.e. both “frais” and “fraîche” = fresh

4.   Multiple plurals

Certain languages consider it insufficient to indicate a plural only once, so they have multiple plurals. For example, “le grand livre” = the big book, but “les grands livres” = the big books. It would be quite incorrect to say “le grand livres”, i.e. without making both the article and the adjective plural as well.

English has neither plural articles nor plural adjectives. “The” is always “the” and “big” is always “big”. They never change.

5.   Verb classes

Many languages have different classes of verbs. Correctly using a verb depends on knowing its class. French, for example, has at least three verb classes, indicated by distinct endings on the infinitive (mang-er = to eat, prend-re = to take, cour-ir = to run). The ending of each individual verb must be learned; otherwise, mistakes are inevitable.

English has only one class of verbs. All infinitives are indicated by “to” (to run, to jump, to sleep, etc.); mistakes are impossible.

6.   Regular conjugations

Certain languages have many more conjugated verb forms than does English. For example, in the present tense you would say: I, we, you, they eat; he, she, it eats. Thus, there are only two conjugated forms (eat, eats). In French there are five conjugated forms and in Spanish there are six.

In the future tense you would say: I, he, she, it, we, they will eat. Thus, there is only one conjugated form (will eat). Spanish still has six conjugated forms, but now so does French. Similar disparities exist in the past tense, and virtually all other verb tenses.

7.   Irregular conjugations

Irregular conjugations are common in many languages; however, there are exceptions. Swahili verbs are perfectly regular. If you know the conjugated forms of just one verb, you know the conjugated forms of all verbs.

English, of course, does not have this enviable facility; however, compared to many other languages, its irregularities are few and far between. For example, English is perfectly regular in both the present and future tenses.

The present tense is always formed by removing “to” from the infinitive and adding the appropriate pronoun: to come = I come, he/she/it comes, we come, you come, they come. The future tense is always formed by removing “to” from the infinitive and adding “will”: to come = I will come, he/she/it will come, we will come, you will come, they will come.

French and Spanish are highly irregular in both of these tense, as well as many others.

Does the relative simplicity of basic English grammar give it the inside track to becoming the world’s official common language? Absolutely not! Along with its undeniable attributes, it also has a number of significant drawbacks.

The most obvious one is English spelling, which is far from being phonetic. This means the same sound can have several different spellings (here, hear; there, their; break, brake; clean, keen; said, bed; height, kite; who, blue, new, etc.). French, of course, is much worse than English in this respect; however, German, Italian and Spanish are much better. And Swahili is perfect. In this language, if you can say a word, you can spell it. End of story.

The second major drawback is pronunciation. Most people, and certainly those who have yet to master another language, are unaware of how seriously difficult correct pronunciation in their own native language could be for a foreigner.

English, like many other languages, is cursed with a tonic accent. “Tonic accent” simply means that certain syllables are given more stress than others. For example, “difficult” is pronounced “dif*-fi-cult”; the first syllable carries the tonic accent. It could just as easily be pronounced “dif-fi*-cult”, which is what Spanish prefers. Or even “dif-fi-cult*”, which might be the preference in some other language.

If your native language has a tonic accent, you have grown up with it, so you may not fully appreciate what a burden it really is is. However, when you try to learn another language, the difficulty becomes evident.

The tonic accent will not always go where you think it should (based on your language), so you will constantly be mispronouncing. Worse, if you put the tonic accent on the wrong syllable, your interlocutor might not understand what you are trying to say at all.

Are there any languages with no tonic accent? There may be many, but French is the only one I know.   

Technically, French does have a tonic accent, but it is very hard to hear it. For example, in English we say “un-i-ver*-si-ty”. In French, this is “un-i-ver-si-té”, with each syllable being given essential the same stress. Likewise with “rest*-au-rant”, which in French is simply “rest-au-rant”. And so on. Thus, you never have to guess where the tonic accent should go, so you can never make a mistake. 

As we have seen, based on the Facility Principle (what you don’t have to do is always easier than what you do have to do), English has a lot to recommend it. However, this is only one criterion. In searching for the best common language for the world, the experts will probably come up with many more. How well English would fare against these additional criteria can only be guessed at.

Editor’s Note

Philip Yaffe is a former reporter/feature writer with The Wall Street Journal and a marketing communication consultant. He currently teaches a course in good writing and good speaking in Brussels, Belgium. In the “I” of the Storm: the Simple Secrets of Writing & Speaking (Almost) like a Professional, his recently published book, is available from Story Publishers in Ghent, Belgium (storypublishers.be) and Amazon (amazon.com).

For further information, contact:

Philip Yaffe

61, avenue des Noisetiers

B-1170 Brussels, Belgium

Tel:    32 (0)2 660 0405

phil.yaffe@yahoo.com